History shows that phases of dramatic changes in political power tend to be particularly unstable and crisis-prone. One of the few exceptions remains the peaceful end of the East-West conflict of 1989-1990, mainly due to Willie Brandt's policy of peace and de-escalation, and the multi-year negotiations within the framework of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE): It is those agreements and institutions that Moscow is currently wreaking havoc. It remains highly doubtful that reliable relations with Russia can be restored under Putin's regency.
In the coming years, if not decades, the European order could see a phase of confrontation, or at best, of coexistence. At the same time, "changing times" should not be used only in the military. The Ukrainian war has in no way changed the need for a comprehensive security concept that includes not only military but also political, economic, ecological and Fax List humanitarian aspects. As with the last crisis triggered by the coronavirus, the Ukraine war has once again highlighted the risks involved in being highly dependent on certain supply chains, whether for energy from Russia or for China's technological infrastructure. In short: the EU must strengthen its common sovereignty and resilience on political, economic and technological issues of strategic importance.
At the same time, it is necessary to start thinking today about how to restore the security order in Europe in the future. Obviously, with Putin, it is impossible to return to the status quo. But sooner or later, European security issues will have to be renegotiated with the Kremlin. However, in the near future, security can only be against Russia, and no longer with Russia. This does not necessarily mean that the lessons of mitigation policies cannot continue to apply to the rest of the world. On the contrary.